Predicci\u00f3n de Atenciones de Urgencia por Causas Respiratorias en Chile<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nLos datos que utilizaremos datos del Departamento de Estad\u00edsticas e informaci\u00f3n en salud del Ministerio de Salud de Chile, estos datos est\u00e1n libremente disponibles en el sitio web del Departamento. Utilizaremos datos desde el a\u00f1o 2017 para predecir el mes de Marzo y Abril del a\u00f1o 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El caso de estudio que analizaremos son los casos totales de Chile para atenciones de urgencia respiratoria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adem\u00e1s de la biblioteca Prophet utilizaremos Pandas para manejar el conjunto de datos y Matplotlib para la visualizaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Importamos las bibliotecas necesarias:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
import pandas as pd\nfrom fbprophet import Prophet\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nPrimero cargaremos el conjunto de datos en memoria:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
df = pd.read_csv('2017-today.csv', sep=';')<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nConvertimos la fecha del punto de datos en un objeto Datetime de Pandas y el valor en un Integer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
df['ds'] = pd.to_datetime(df.ds)\ndf['y'] = pd.to_numeric(df.y,errors='coerce')<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nInstanciamos Prophet y entrenamos el modelo:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
m = Prophet()\nm.fit(df)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nCreamos un DataFrame que contiene los datos futuros que vamos a predecir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=60)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nPredecimos sobre el DataFrame anteriormente creado:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
forecast = m.predict(future)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nGeneramos la figura que contiene un mes de datos reales y dos meses de datos predichos:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
predicted = forecast.tail(63)\nreal = df[-30:-2]\nfig, ax = plt.subplots()\nax.plot(predicted[\"ds\"],predicted[\"yhat\"],label=\"Predicci\u00f3n\")\nax.plot(real[\"ds\"],real[\"y\"],label=\"Real\")\nax.fill_between(predicted[\"ds\"], predicted[\"yhat_lower\"], predicted[\"yhat_upper\"],color=\"aliceblue\",label=\"Intervalo de Confianza\")\nax.legend()\nax.set_title(\"Predicci\u00f3n de Atenciones de Urgencia por Causas Respiratorias\")\nax.set_ylabel(\"Atenciones\")\nax.set_xlabel(\"Fecha\")\nfig.text(0.5, 0.5, 'fabianvillena.cl', fontsize=40, color='gray', ha='center', va='center', alpha=0.5)\nplt.xticks(rotation=45)\nplt.tight_layout()\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\nHe aqu\u00ed la predicci\u00f3n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a1Comparte la imagen en tus Redes Sociales!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nPredicci\u00f3n de Atenciones de Urgencia por Causas Respiratorias en Chile<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nDesde la predicci\u00f3n se desprende que desde la pr\u00f3xima semana se disparar\u00e1n las atenciones de urgencias alrededor de dos veces m\u00e1s que los valores actuales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La predicci\u00f3n es la ciencia de estimar situaciones de incertidumbre, donde en este caso lograremos predecir el futuro utilizando datos de series temporales anteriores. Los datos que utilizaremos datos del Departamento de Estad\u00edsticas e informaci\u00f3n en salud del Ministerio de Salud de Chile, estos datos est\u00e1n libremente disponibles en el sitio web del Departamento. Utilizaremos … <\/p>\n
Continua leyendo “Prediciendo las Atenciones de Urgencia en Chile”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[144,103],"tags":[151,149,152],"class_list":["post-621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-informatica-medica","category-pacientes","tag-machine-learning","tag-prediccion","tag-urgencias-respiratorias"],"yoast_head":"\nPrediciendo las Atenciones de Urgencia en Chile - Dr. Fabi\u00e1n Villena Rodr\u00edguez<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Predicci\u00f3n de las atenciones de urgencia para el a\u00f1o 2020. 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Las enfermedades periodontales engloban todas las patolog\u00edas inflamatorias que afectan a la\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Dentistas"","block_context":{"text":"Dentistas","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/dentistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/periodontitis.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/periodontitis.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/periodontitis.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/periodontitis.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/periodontitis.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":643,"url":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/que-tan-comun-es-tu-cumpleanos\/","url_meta":{"origin":621,"position":1},"title":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 tan com\u00fan es tu cumplea\u00f1os?","author":"Fabi\u00e1n","date":"Septiembre 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Estar de cumplea\u00f1os el mismo d\u00eda que un amigo puede ser entretenido o \u00bfquiz\u00e1s no?. En este art\u00edculo responderemos la pregunta sobre si existen diferencias o patrones en los d\u00edas de cumplea\u00f1os de los Chilenos. Distribuci\u00f3n de la frecuencia de cumplea\u00f1os por cada d\u00eda del a\u00f1o en Chile Para poder\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Inform\u00e1tica M\u00e9dica"","block_context":{"text":"Inform\u00e1tica M\u00e9dica","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/informatica-medica\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/birthdays-in-chile.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/birthdays-in-chile.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/birthdays-in-chile.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/birthdays-in-chile.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":347,"url":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/propuestas-salud-oral-chile\/","url_meta":{"origin":621,"position":2},"title":"Propuestas de Salud Oral Para Chile","author":"Fabi\u00e1n","date":"Agosto 13, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"El d\u00eda viernes 30 de Junio de 2017 se realiz\u00f3 un seminario con el fin de generar propuestas de salud oral para Chile actualizadas y con participaci\u00f3n integral de odont\u00f3logos de todo Chile. A continuaci\u00f3n se presenta un resumen de las propuestas de salud oral para Chile, junto con el\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Dentistas"","block_context":{"text":"Dentistas","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/dentistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/propuestas-salud-oral.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/propuestas-salud-oral.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/propuestas-salud-oral.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/propuestas-salud-oral.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/propuestas-salud-oral.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":483,"url":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/generador-automatico-de-diagnosticos\/","url_meta":{"origin":621,"position":3},"title":"Generador Autom\u00e1tico de Diagn\u00f3sticos","author":"Fabi\u00e1n","date":"Julio 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Puedes probar el generador ac\u00e1. La narrativa m\u00e9dica es un tema muy estudiado en estos momentos dado el gran advenimiento de la Inteligencia Artificial en la sociedad en general. Lograr entender cu\u00e1l es el significado de una narrativa m\u00e9dica es el objetivo principal del Procesamiento de Lenguaje Natural en Medicina,\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Dentistas"","block_context":{"text":"Dentistas","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/dentistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/DiagnosticGenerator.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/DiagnosticGenerator.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/DiagnosticGenerator.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/DiagnosticGenerator.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/DiagnosticGenerator.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":386,"url":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/cuantas-caries-tenemos-los-chilenos-perfil-epidemiologico-de-la-caries-en-chile\/","url_meta":{"origin":621,"position":4},"title":"\u00bfCu\u00e1ntas Caries Tenemos Los Chilenos?: Perfil Epidemiol\u00f3gico de la Caries en Chile","author":"Fabi\u00e1n","date":"Agosto 24, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"La caries en Chile es un problema de salud p\u00fablica, porque pr\u00e1cticamente no hay personas adultas que no tengan caries o que no tengan secuelas de una lesi\u00f3n de caries. La lesi\u00f3n de caries es una disoluci\u00f3n qu\u00edmica de la superficie dentaria resultado de eventos metab\u00f3licos sucedidos en la placa\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Dentistas"","block_context":{"text":"Dentistas","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/dentistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Caries Dental","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/fabianvillena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Caries-Dental.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/fabianvillena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Caries-Dental.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/fabianvillena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Caries-Dental.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":489,"url":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/visualizando-la-lista-de-espera-chilena\/","url_meta":{"origin":621,"position":5},"title":"Visualizando la Lista de Espera Chilena","author":"Fabi\u00e1n","date":"Julio 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Accede a la plataforma de visualizaci\u00f3n. La falta de estructura en los textos cl\u00ednicos dificulta la extracci\u00f3n e integraci\u00f3n de la informaci\u00f3n, especialmente en el caso de datos masivos. A pesar de que se puede realizar estad\u00edstica descriptiva sobre textos carentes de estructura, las t\u00e9cnicas actuales de recuperaci\u00f3n de informaci\u00f3n\u2026","rel":"","context":"En "Inform\u00e1tica M\u00e9dica"","block_context":{"text":"Inform\u00e1tica M\u00e9dica","link":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/category\/informatica-medica\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/worclau.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/worclau.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/worclau.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/worclau.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/worclau.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=621"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":635,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621\/revisions\/635"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/villena.cl\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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